Currency Market Outlook

COT Data

Looking at the COT report we can see that euro is the strongest currency this week while jpy is the weakest. So in the forex currency market EUR/JPY would have to be my biggest play of interest for a long position. I would expect eur/nzd eur/usd and eur/cad to be strong long positions as well.

US DOLLAR

We are very close to breaking the previous year's high! Expecting a pull back this week and then we take the previous years high or we can take the previous years high this week & that is when price will start reversing to the downside. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZEffrVpu/ Just based on COT report it does look like we will be facing a bearish dollar this week. But just based off TA the buy side liquidity is very close so this is our over all target meaning still some upside to the dollar. Perhaps playing out in the later end of the week as we do not have any news events until Thursday.

Inter Market

With yen being the most bearish currency this would mean all xxx/yen crosses should be going up. With usd/jpy correlating we would expect some upside on the dollar as well. Choppy price action until the later week is very much on the table. I know me personally I rather trade the last 3 days this week. With euro showing strength to the dollar based on the COT report I would expect the dollar to have a nice drop within the next two weeks. It is not the clearest of signals as I am expecting both eur/usd and usd/jpy to go up and these assets move in the opposite directions. Can even spot a bullish SMT pending on the weekly with eur/usd taking a low gbp/usd will more than likely fail to signaling a strong trend reversal. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lPCzu6ni/ This could take weeks to pan out and based off AMDX or XAMD models on the yearly cycle I do see the dollar continuing to go higher while xxx/usd continuing to go lower into the year end roughly.

Fundamentals

In terms of economic growth CAD GBP and EUR look really good. The labor market in the US is the strongest as well as Japan in other countries the unemployment rates are like 3x higher! Inflation across all currencies have been on a slow decline it actually looks pretty good the global economy is doing well which is a reason so much money is being pumped into crypto. Don't listen to people who have no idea what they are talking about. People are always talking about a recession or high inflation (run from them they are misinformed) etc. but truthfully everything looks good aside from war issues.

I use $1000 software for my fundamental/sentimental reports and looking at the business forecaster US is expect to decline after Q4; JPY as well. GBP just a steady increase while euro climbs Q4 with a down trend from Q1 - Q2 but then after that back up. CHF expected to rise after Q4 with a decline in Q2. CAD Q4 looks good a decline in Q1 but then back up for Q2. AUD no fast moves in any direction but the trend is for business to steadily rise.