Crypto Q4 & Beyond

Let's just dive right into the current state of the market as of September 9th 2024. I want to mention with the new moon we had on September 2nd I was expecting a blood bath with that being the low of the next 6 months to come. With that being said let's look at the technicals & dive deeper into the sentiments.

Sol Analysis

On the Monthly we have a very important zone that btc is testing again it seems. We have bullish SMT with xrp failing to make a new low, that low is protected by 30% as well for a monthly timeframe bullish SMT to remain valid, meaning bitcoin can send at any given time. ETH looks even weaker where we can possibly see ETH making a new low on monthly while btc & xrp does not sending price higher. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SizSxiq9/

On the daily there is a bullish SMT with xrp failing to make a low sister assets did. With a strong bullish reaction following. We also tapped the inverted fair value gap from the monthly for a retest which again we reacted strong from. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SstuJlNX/ Let's dive into the sentiments, how is the market responding to all this noise?

Liquidation Heat Map

We can see heavy liquidity below at roughly 54.4k

Open Interest

Looking back at open interest data you can see when there is a rise in open interest there is a rise in the price of btc and vice versa. As of now we see open interest is indeed on a sharp curve upward.

Flow of USDC

As you should know, USDC is a stable coin, so the more outflow of USDC means people are selling their coins, while inflow means meaning are buying more coins, looking at the chart, you can see that inflows are having a sharp increase while outflow is on the decline.

Flow of USDT

Looking at USDT we see a pretty stable position from both sides

Uni & Pancake Swap

Uni & Pancake swap are popular exchanges you can use to convert one coin to the next. In uniswap we see the positions are once again pretty neutral, with a sharp decline in inflow recent we can reflect that with the bearish price action of btc.

On pancake swap things look even more bearish with sharp decline in inflow and sharp increase in outflow.

Market Overview

Compared to the most recent activity of the crypto market as a whole we see significant improvement since the start of the week. With almost a 50% increase in volume!

Retail Position

Monitoring the retail positions, not much ever really changes, it makes me think people are holding long positions from a lower price point. As a 'smart money' trader we know that 90% of retail traders fail & therefore we want to do the opposite of them. I can say long positions in btc has slightly declined a bit but we need to see a change in retail sentiment before seeing true higher prices in my opinion

Volatility

Let us dive into some technicals on the VIX, which is a measure of volatility also could be looked at as a fear indicator. When volatility rises people are afraid & avoid risk off assets like bitcoin. Looking at the daily entered a FVG & reacted bearish from the 50% zone, giving a good sign for an asset like bitcoin. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QEFDhVXt/

On the weekly, we see price is in a breaker block, where it looks like bullish momentum is on the rise, This will be a key zone to watch out for in the coming days/weeks. https://www.tradingview.com/x/bQsiZDYC/

Seasonality

From this standpoint btc typically has a bearish month, with a huge increase typically in the month following. With rate cuts pending this month it all lines up for a bearish month & bullish upside following after.

So far this month it looks like bitcoin is actually performing worst than the 10 year average.

Price Forecaster

According to our price forecaster it as well predicts lower prices continuing into the month.

Fear/Greed

According to our indicator the market is in pretty serious fear right now. Again meaning risk off assets like bitcoin would be unfavorable. Now from the opening price of the market this Monday it doesn't look like anyone is in fear. Perhaps we have manipulation at the start of the week?

Conclusion

The buying opportunities are among us now, will btc reach a new low? We seen some pretty share declines as of late but as of today btc soared almost 10%. If I didn't own any crypto I would start buying in at 55k & wait for potential dollar cost average entries. Now in the next article I will share what to buy :) As to not make this article super lengthy will skip out on adding everything here.