Crypto Pulse: Key Updates and Market Moves

Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin continues to struggle, trading slightly down at $59,039 as of Tuesday. The crypto giant is grappling with continued outflows from US-listed Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and bearish on-chain data. Recent movements in funds from the Mt. Gox wallet and negative on-chain indicators have added to market uncertainty, keeping Bitcoin in a downward trend. Wolfe Research also highlights the challenges ahead for Bitcoin, noting that the coin has been stuck in a bearish trajectory since peaking in March. Despite minor rallies, the path of least resistance appears to be downward, with the market lacking the strong conviction seen in previous years.

Ethereum (ETH) Struggles Alongside Bitcoin

Ethereum is also facing headwinds, with recent price breakdowns signaling further downside. Wolfe Research suggests that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum's momentum has waned, and the market could see additional losses in the near term. The overall sentiment in the crypto market appears to be shifting as both leading assets face mounting challenges.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Sees Whale Accumulation Despite Unrealized Losses

Dogecoin, the largest meme coin, has seen a surge in whale wallet holdings, with addresses holding more than 10 billion DOGE increasing by 50% over the last 30 days. Despite this accumulation, nearly 48% of Dogecoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses, potentially reducing selling pressure. DOGE is currently trading at $0.10227 and could see a 12% rally, with technical indicators showing positive momentum. This increase in whale holdings is a positive sign, suggesting confidence among large investors even as the broader market faces difficulties.

Ripple (XRP) Advances Amid Legal and Market Developments

Ripple has been at the center of significant developments, with its price surging above $0.56 amidst positive ecosystem updates. The firm’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, believes the SEC is unlikely to appeal the recent ruling in the lawsuit against Ripple, a sentiment that has eased concerns among XRP traders. Ripple is also testing its stablecoin, Ripple USD, in private beta, with the asset currently seeking regulatory approval. Additionally, Ripple’s recent partnership with SBI Holdings' crypto arm is expected to boost the utility of the XRP Ledger. However, XRP's price may dip to $0.52 before attempting a recovery, given the underlying negative momentum.

Solana (SOL) ETF Applications Withdrawn?

Solana's market sentiment took a hit as forms 19b-4 for VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs appear to have been removed from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) website. This has raised concerns among traders, leading to speculation that the applications may have been withdrawn. If true, this could negatively impact SOL's market sentiment. Solana is currently hovering under $140, having lost over 10% of its value in the past week.

Avalanche (AVAX) Faces Potential Price Correction Amid Token Unlock

Avalanche (AVAX) is bracing for a significant increase in its circulating supply, with 9.54 million AVAX tokens worth approximately $196 million set to be unlocked next week. This could lead to a substantial price correction, adding to the nearly 50% loss AVAX holders have experienced year-to-date. Despite trading slightly up at $20, the heavy token unlock could trigger a sell-off, especially given the negative sentiment surrounding increased supply.

In a more positive development, Avalanche has partnered with California's Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to digitize 42 million car titles using blockchain technology. This move is expected to enhance efficiency and security in title transfers and could significantly boost AVAX's growth and adoption, according to billionaire investor Mark Cuban. The partnership demonstrates Avalanche's potential to revolutionize industries by leveraging blockchain for transparency and fraud prevention.

Smart Money Indicators

Looking at Non Commercial positioning vs retail positioning we can see retail is increasing their long positions while non commercials are doing the opposite

Looking at the liquidation heat map; we can see a stronger liquidity resting at 58600 vs 59900. Does this indicator our long positioning into the full moon? As price potentially meets 58600 before 59900 with a bullish SMT confirmation for higher prices.

From a Seasonality point of view we should have a bullish week. With a full moon happening on Monday. We can confirm the expectancy.

Looking at the month to month of the seasonality data so far we can bitcoin has been leaning towards the underperforming side.

Looking at the COT data we can see a pretty neutral stance on bitcoin his week. With a larger increase in shorts vs longs opened this week. We can expect some upside from the full moon with potential sell off following after. With FOMC Wednesday giving us a narrative for the proper position.

Sol Analysis

I want to refer back to last weeks analysis first where I mentioned the low of the month at least being in with weekly bullish SMT present. We continue to have bullish SMT now on the daily from Monday - Thurs. Bitcoin had a nice bullish reaction from quarter 1 of August key liquidity zone. ETH & XRP do look a bit weaker than bitcoin giving way to a potential bearish SMT that can form. ETH is under the true month open which I like to see for potential upside. A bullish push for the full moon Monday I would say is in the bag, how hard of a push is the question as btc is in a range of 56 - 62k currently. A strong break above 64k would be needed for real bullish outlooks. No doubt volatility will kick in the later of next week. I would like to see btc touch 63k at least before anymore downside for a positive outlook. As btc technically is still bearish, with some bullish strength present. https://www.tradingview.com/x/UZe8I6ze/